{"id":436,"date":"2016-07-13T12:57:11","date_gmt":"2016-07-13T17:57:11","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.uww.edu\/prasad\/?page_id=436"},"modified":"2016-07-13T12:57:16","modified_gmt":"2016-07-13T17:57:16","slug":"supply-chain-forecasting-collaborative-forecasting-supports-supply-chain-management","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/blogs.uww.edu\/prasad\/teaching\/independent-study\/supply-chain-forecasting-collaborative-forecasting-supports-supply-chain-management\/","title":{"rendered":"Supply chain forecasting: Collaborative forecasting supports supply chain management"},"content":{"rendered":"

Marilyn M. Helms, Lawrence P. Ettkin, Sharon Chapman<\/p>\n

Business Process Management Journal<\/h2>\n

2000, Vol. 6, No. 5 P. 392-407<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

1)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Why supply chain management?<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. a) To meet competitive challenges of environment<\/li>\n
  2. b) Broader focus on entire chain and all link<\/li>\n
  3. c) Strategy, decisions and measurements affect entire supply chain<\/li>\n
  4. d) Improve customer service<\/li>\n
  5. e) Squeeze out costs<\/li>\n
  6. f) Improve efficiency<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    2)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Collaborative Forecasting<\/p>\n

      \n
    1. a) Bringing SCM to all aspects of the business<\/li>\n
    2. b) Forecasting accuracy is connected to inventory and customer service levels<\/li>\n
    3. c) Entire SC participates in decisions about demand<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      3)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Problems with traditional forecasting<\/p>\n

        \n
      1. a) Forecasts are inexact but no one knows how to improve them<\/li>\n
      2. b) Uncertainty leads to ways to deal with uncertainty- inventory<\/li>\n
      3. c) Marketplace is dynamic, yet forecasting is based on historical information<\/li>\n
      4. d) Often, many forecasts exist within the company: sales, marketing, production\u2026<\/li>\n
      5. e) Lack of clear communication between functions providing forecasting information<\/li>\n
      6. f) Planning process is backward: business plan is used to develop the forecast.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

        4)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Benefits of Collaborative forecasting<\/p>\n

          \n
        1. a) Internal and external knowledge and information is brought together to form a single forecast<\/li>\n
        2. b) Coordinates the gathering of expertise from diverse sources and uses consensus to develop a more accurate forecast<\/li>\n
        3. c) Complexity is overcome by cooperative solution seeking<\/li>\n
        4. d) Baseline of historical information is complemented by current knowledge<\/li>\n
        5. e) Keeps everyone in the supply chain working from the same plan<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

          5)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 The Process<\/p>\n

            \n
          1. a) Select a forecasting champion<\/li>\n
          2. i) One department of person must be put in charge<\/li>\n
          3. ii) Someone to take the lead and coordinate differences in personality and experience<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

            iii)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Facilitate cross-functional efforts<\/p>\n

              \n
            1. b) Form the forecast collaboration group<\/li>\n
            2. i) Membership depends on the organization<\/li>\n
            3. ii) Should include members of a variety of functional areas<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

              iii)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 May include external partners in the supply chain and customers<\/p>\n

                \n
              1. c) Create the foundations<\/li>\n
              2. i) Decide goals, objectives and immediate needs<\/li>\n
              3. ii) Identify factors processes and technologies that impact the forecast<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                iii)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Identify and review relevant sources of information available<\/p>\n

                (1)\u00a0\u00a0 Sales: most recent and accurate information about orders and sales<\/p>\n

                (2)\u00a0\u00a0 Marketing: information on trends in the marketplace<\/p>\n

                (3)\u00a0\u00a0 Operations: information concerning production and distribution constraints<\/p>\n

                (4)\u00a0\u00a0 Forecasting: information about historical baseline and statistical analysis<\/p>\n

                  \n
                1. iv) Decide on the process to bring together information<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                  (1)\u00a0\u00a0 Monthly review<\/p>\n

                  (a)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Two meetings per month<\/p>\n

                  (b)\u00a0\u00a0 First meeting: gathering information<\/p>\n

                  (c)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Second meeting: bringing together different forecasts and arriving at consensus<\/p>\n

                  (2)\u00a0\u00a0 Delphi approach<\/p>\n

                  (a)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Baseline forecast is circulated throughout the group<\/p>\n

                  (b)\u00a0\u00a0 Changes are passed along<\/p>\n

                  (c)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Team gathers to review the changes and arrive at consensus<\/p>\n

                  (d)\u00a0\u00a0 Consensus is presented to management for approval<\/p>\n

                  (3)\u00a0\u00a0 Either approach<\/p>\n

                  (a)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Should become a monthly cycle<\/p>\n

                  (b)\u00a0\u00a0 Actual and forecasted results should be compared to improve the process<\/p>\n

                  (c)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Outputs should be published<\/p>\n

                  (d)\u00a0\u00a0 The cycle results in continuous improvement<\/p>\n

                    \n
                  1. v) Other aspects<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                    (1)\u00a0\u00a0 Results should be measured and participants rewarded to provide incentive<\/p>\n

                    6)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Problems with Collaborative Forecasting and possible solutions<\/p>\n

                      \n
                    1. a) Requires a variety of personalities and people with different thought processes to work together as a unit<\/li>\n
                    2. i) Set strict rules of order of meetings<\/li>\n
                    3. ii) Rotate group membership<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                      iii)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Encourage strong leadership from the Champion<\/p>\n

                        \n
                      1. b) Resistance to change and additional tasks\/work<\/li>\n
                      2. i) Rewarding for participation<\/li>\n
                      3. ii) Patience: results do not occur overnight<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                        iii)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Full commitment and support of management<\/p>\n

                         <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

                        Marilyn M. Helms, Lawrence P. Ettkin, Sharon Chapman Business Process Management Journal 2000, Vol. 6, No. 5 P. 392-407   1)\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Why supply chain management? a) To meet competitive challenges of environment b) Broader focus on entire chain and all link c) Strategy, decisions and measurements affect entire supply chain d) Improve customer service e) […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3916,"featured_media":0,"parent":118,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","template":"","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-436","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.uww.edu\/prasad\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/436","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.uww.edu\/prasad\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.uww.edu\/prasad\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.uww.edu\/prasad\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3916"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.uww.edu\/prasad\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=436"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.uww.edu\/prasad\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/436\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":437,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.uww.edu\/prasad\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/436\/revisions\/437"}],"up":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.uww.edu\/prasad\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/118"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.uww.edu\/prasad\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=436"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}