CHICAGO CUBS

2009 RECORD/STATS: (83-78) 2^nd Place

2010 Predction:  (81-81) 3^rd place

I just don’t see how the Cubs got any better this offseason.  Alfonso Soriano, Derek Lee, and Aramis Ramirez are all a year older and more fragile.  Lou Piniella is still a great manager and teacher of the game, but when players fail to listen, it can grow tiresome for even the seasoned veterans.  The Cubs always field a good team, but there is always just SOMETHING that goes wrong.  There IS a reason the have not won a World Series in over a century, and it continues this year.

KEY ADDITIONS:  CF Marlon Byrd, P Carlos Silva, 3B Chad Tracy, OF Xavier Nady

Byrd becomes the latest horse in the merry-go-round that is the Cubs’ centerfield position.  He is a huge defensive upgradeand socked 20 HR in 2009,  but he can’t cover for Soriano and Fukadome as well.

 Silva is terrible and making $25.5 million thru 2011; and Chad Tracy played his way out of Arizona, but does provide a better alternative off the bench than Micah Hoffpauir.

KEY DEPARTURES:  OF Milton Bradley, P Rich Harden, P Kevin Gregg, OF Reed Johnson

Bradley will not be missed.  It was a nightmarish year for him and the Cubs.  Harden is dominant when he is healthy and could be a major loss. 

PLAYER TO WATCH:  OF Alfonso Soriano

The oft-injured, oft-criticized Soriano is on his last legs.  It has affected his defense, hitting, speed and his power at the plate.  He is still due a ton of money ($17 mil in 2010).   Combine that with the fact that he whines about his spot in the batting order, it’s no wonder he ha drawn the jeers from Cubs fans.  Soriano must produce this year of that’s it, he will be gone by 2011.   No production for a large sum of money will do that.  Soriano also must produce at the plate, something the Cubs’ lineup counts on everyday.

Opening Day Review

Brewers lose 3-5 to Rockies

Brewers

The Good: Carlos Gomez looked fantastic in his Brewers debut going 4-5 with a homerun, double, RBI and two runs scored.

2B Rickie Weeks was on base three times and Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun combined for four hits and two RBIs.

Yovanni Gallardo made one bad 3-0 pitch that Rockies 3B Ian Stewart crushed off the scoreboard in right-center field.

Despite only walking twice, the Brewers made the Rockies pitchers work showing more patience at the plate than last season.

The Bad: The Brewers Defense.  Jim Edmonds struck out twice leaving runners in scoring position and made a big baserunning gaffe when he was doubled up off of second base.

The Ugly: The Brewers were 2-12 with RISP.  Brewers catcher Gregg Zaun had an auspicious debut for his new team.

Despite throwing out a baserunner on a perfect strike to second, Zaun misplayed a wild pitch that allowed a runner to score from second.  Zaun also went 0-4 at the dish.

Rockies

The Good: Ubaldo Jimenez is the hardest thrower in the league, and was dominating Brewers hitters with his fastball all game.

The Bad: With Jimenez finally out of the game, the Brewers made a comeback on the Rockies suspect bullpen scoring once off of RP Matt Belisle and CL Franklin Morales to make the game close at the end.

The Ugly: The Rockies take pride in their defense, but showed the Opening Day jitters that affect most clubs, committing two errors, including one by SS Troy Tulowitski on a routine play.

Overall: With the loss, the Brewers fall to 21-19-1 on Opening Day since becoming the Brewers back in 1969.  By all means, it wasn’t a quality game by the Brewers, but they were never out of it and had chances to win.

MLB news and notes: The Atlanta Braves 20-yr old phenom, Jason Heyward started his illustrious career with a literal bang, as he smoked a HR in his first ever major league AB.

Cardinals 1B Albert Pujols continues to prove he is the best hitter of his generation as he went 4-5 with two homers in a win over the Reds.  It was the second career multi-homer Opening Day for Pujols, who just continues to dominate everything in his path.

Houston Astros

2009 RECORD: (74-88) 5^th Place

2009 NL BATTING RANKINGS: .260 AVE (8), .319 OBP% (13), .719 OPS (12), 142 HR (12)

2009 NL PITCHING RANKINGS: 4.54 ERA (13), 1.44 WHIP (13),  1144 SO (10), 546 BB (6)

2010 Prediction: (77-85) 5^th Place

Manager Cecil Cooper was fired in order to change the clubhouse dynamics.  New manager Brad Mills has made the game fun again according to Astros players with his laid back attitude.  Mills comes from a good pedigree as Terry Francona’s bench coach in Boston.

The Astros should be better on paper, with a healthy 1B Lance Berkman to start the season, LF Carlos Lee and RF Hunter Pence; however questions remain about 3/5ths of their starting rotation behind Roy Oswalt and Wandy Rodriguez, the bullpen looks like a Triple-A roster, and the offense could again struggle to score runs.

CF Michael Bourne must cut down on his 140K’s to be an effective leadoff hitter, and 2B Kaz Matsui must return to his 2008 form (.293 AVE, .354 OBP%, 20 SB) for the Astros to make any impact.

Despite big question marks in the rotation and the lineup the Astros always remain competitive within the division and could play the spoiler role as the season winds down.

KEY ADDITIONS: 3B Pedro Feliz, P Brett Meyers, P Brandon Lyon, P Matt Lindstrom

Feliz has been an underrated player for years.  He is a good at 3B, and swings a decent stick.  Brett Meyers will get a shot to start and fireballer Matt Lindstrom should lock the closers role down.  The Brandon Lyon signing is puzzling.  The Astros shelled out $15 million over 3 years for a pitcher who has blown 29.8% of his career save chances.

KEY DEPARTURES:  P LaTroy Hawkins, 3B Miguel Tejada, P Jose Valverde

Feliz is an upgrade over the aging Tejada.  Valverde is a quality closer and was effective, converting 69 of 80 (86%)  save chances  in his two years as Astros closer.

PLAYER TO WATCH: OF HUNTER PENCE

With Lee aging, and Berkman possibly gone by year’s end, Pence will become one of the main forces on the Astros.  Loved by fans, Pence had a good year at the plate in 2009.  (.282 AVE, .346 OBP%, 25 HR)  Pence stole 14 bases last year, but has the capabilities to join the 25 HR-25 SB club.

Pence has been solid for the Astros in his three years in the majors.   2010 could be the year Pence becomes the offense force the Astros though he could be.

A solid defender, Hunter Pence's defense gets overlooked. Courtesy of espn.com

PITTSBURGH PIRATES

009 RECORD:(62-99) 6^th Place

2009 NL BATTING RANKINGS: .252 AVE (14), .318 OBP% (14), .705 OPS (14), 125 HR (14)

2009 NL PITCHING RANKINGS: 4.59 ERA (14), 1.44 WHIP (14),  919 SO (15), 563 BB (7)

2010 Prediction: (70-92) 6^th Place

The Pirates are the same every year.  Fast start in March, in last place by April.  They are very young after their latest fire sale in 2009 and like every year they do have a lot of positive, good young talent.

OF Garrett Jones must continue to mash the baseball 21 HR in 358 PA, but won’t be able to sneak under the radar of NL pitchers anymore.

OF Lastings Milledge is oozing with potential and seems to have found a home in Pittsburgh.

The pitching of Ross Ohlendorf (3.92 ERA, 1.23 WHIP; Paul Maholm (4.44 ERA, 1.44 WHIP); and Zach Duke (4.06 ERA, 1.31 WHIP) remain works in progress but show flashes of brilliance at times.

KEY ADDITIONS:  P Octavio Dotel, OF Ryan Church, SS Bobby Crosby, 2B Akinori Iwamura

Dotel becomes the defacto closer.  Over the past two years, Dotel has punched out 11.62 batters per nine innings, second-best among relievers. His control is sketchy (4.52 BB/9) and he’s an extreme fly ball pitcher (66 FB%), but the move to the cavernous PNC Park will help that.

Church, Crosby and Iwamura add veteran leadership and could possibly be dealt to contenders near the trade deadline.

KEY DEPARTURES:  P Matt Capps

Capps was a quality closer 48 of 58 the past two years when healthy, but seemed to have lingering problems last year.  The rest of the bullpen is patched together with veteran journeymen mixed with youngsters.

PLAYER TO WATCH:  OF Andrew McCutchen

McCutchen is the next big thing in Pittsburgh.

After only half a season in the majors, McCutchen is already the best player on the Pirates and has shown flashes of being a big time player in this league for years to come. He hits to all fields with power, possesses blazing speed, can run down balls at the spacious PNC Park, and catches everything in sight.  He will be one of the lone bright spots on an improving but still mediocre Pirates team.

Video – Alcides Escobar talks his debut

Inside the trade of J.J. Hardy

The good, the bad, the aftermath

November 6, 2009 was a significant day for the Milwaukee Brewers.  That was the day GM Doug Melvin traded shortstop and fan favorite, J.J. Hardy to the Minnesota Twins for fleet-footed CF Carlos Gomez.

Fan Favorite Gone

J.J. Hardy is ready to woo the ladies of Minnesota

Photo Courtesy of MLB.com

When Hardy was sent down to Triple-A Nashville and Escobar brought up to replace him, it was clear that Hardy’s time in Milwaukee was limited.  Add to the fact that Hardy’s offensive numbers were down significantly, he was scheduled to make significant money in the off-season, and Alcides Escobar had nothing left to prove in the minor leagues, the Brewers had no choice but to trade him.

This is a significant trade.  Hardy was a fan favorite.  Let’s face it.  He was a good looking man, and brought a significant population of women to Brewers games.  Hardy was also a key component of the youth movement, (along with Ryan Braun, Rickie Weeks, Prince Fielder, Corey Hart and Yovanni Gallardo) drafted by the Brewers, brought up through the minors together, and responsible for turning this franchise around.

This trade proves that no one is untouchable in the business aspect of baseball.  For years the Brewers dreamed of winning a title “from scratch”, by not spending millions on free agents, instead using their own talent.  ‘

Hardy was a major factor in that, but you have to produce on the field.  He didn’t, Escobar did.  Simple as that.

Changing the team

Two aspects of the Brewers’ game that will increase significantly in 2010 from 2009 is team speed and team defense.

Although both still very young, Escobar is 22, Gomez is 23 both are considered to be among the best fielders at their respective positions.

Gomez brings his world-class defense from the Twins to the Brewers

Photo Courtesy of MLB.com

Gomez was tied with Baltimore’s Adam Jones for the highest RF/9 in the AL last year at 3.21.  Gomez replaces CF Mike Cameron who led the NL with a 2.90 RF in 2009.

With Gomez replacing Cameron, the Brewers became 13 years younger, saved approximately $8 million by not resigning Cameron and control the rights to Gomez for another four years.

Considered one of, if not, the fastest players in baseball, Gomez’s weaknesses at the plate have overshadowed his speed and defense.

He has yet to get on base consistently (.292 career OBP%), his career groundball rate is just 44.4%, near the MLB average, and for a guy with his speed, it makes no sense to hit fly balls.

Gomez owns a career .353 SLG % for the fly balls he hits, meaning they don’t go anywhere. For reference, the AL average was .603 in 2009.

When he isn’t hitting harmless flies, Gomez is popping the ball up at an alarming rate, nearly 17% of the time.

Brewers coaches are working tirelessly to get Gomez to take more pitches and hit more groundballs this spring.  Gomez’s speed could become a game breaker should he consistently get on base this year.

Escobar’s Time to Shine

Escobar is in the hunt for NL Rookie of the Year in 2010

Photo Courtesy of MLB.com

Escobar has consistently been among the youngest players in the leagues in which he has played and his bat has developed nicely during the past couple of seasons.

After a horrible 2006 campaign at high Class A, when he broke a finger, posted an OBP worse than .300 and slugged just .306 in the 87 games he did play, Escobar hit .306 in 2007. He then hit .328 at Double-A last year, ranking third in the minor leagues in hits.

This past winter, Escobar won the Venezuelan League batting title with a .390 AVE.  The shortstop job is Escobar’s and so is the pressure of a rookie performing for a contending ball club.

There is a lot of pressure on these two kids to perform.  They both must contribute significantly if the Brewers plan on making another run at the postseason.  Both have the speed to swipe 40+ bases.  Question is, can they get on base enough to contribute, and can they hold up over a 162 game season?

That’s why they play the games, folks.

Welcome to The Corked Bat.  I am Spencer Rockwell, and I have an unhealthy obsession with baseball history and statistics.

The game of baseball has changed to accommodate the 21^st century.  The same can be said for media coverage and baseball statistics.  Gone are the traditional measurements for baseball greatness.  Statistics such as batting average (.AVE); home runs (HR); and earned run average (ERA).  While these stats still tell how well a player preformed during a year, they are not a thorough diagnosis of just how much a player contributes to the success of their respective teams. 

Sabermetrics is the statistical and analytical study of baseball created to provide an idea on why teams win and lose.  Individual and team stats play the major role when it comes to research, but the idea of luck is never cast aside.  New statistical categories were created to measure a player’s contribution to his team and compare his stats in a historical perspective.  Defensive statistics were created to measure how many runs a player cost his team over a season. 

With baseball moving further into the future, media coverage has evolved with it.  Specialized websites dealing with sabermetrics are popping up all over the web.  With the advent of social media websites, player and team news is being released seconds within seconds.  The internet has made baseball’s off-season just as important as the regular season.  Rumors and speculation of impending firings or trades run amuck everywhere.

My blog will be a venture into this new “updated” word of baseball journalism, with specific coverage of our Milwaukee Brewers.  I have been a Brewer Fan since 1982, when my father took me to Game 4 of the World Series in Milwaukee when I was 5.  Since then I have followed every game, memorized statistics, and dived deep into Brewer history. 

I intend to use sabermetrics and my knowledge of baseball to provide in-depth coverage of the Brewers.  I hope you enjoy reading it.

I have a rejuvenated spirit when is comes to the Milwaukee Bucks.  It’s been an enternity since there has been a player as explosive, exciting, and brash as Brandon Jennings.  He alone, has made the Bucks bearable to watch.  It’s like watching  Allen Iverson when he came into the league.

Probably the best baseball writer going right now. Get on his RSS feed.

http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/1061/wednesday-wangdoodles-29

Folks, let’s face it.  Ryan Grant is just not a good running back.  Average at best.  I understand that the Packers and Mike McCarthy elect to pass more than run, and that’s fine.  They may have, arguably, the best recieving corps in the NFL. (Jennings, Double-D, Finley, Jones, Nelson)  Take advantage while you can.  I agree with that, but when Grant touches the ball, it’s just not there.  His stats are average at best:  http://www.nfl.com/players/ryangrant/profile?id=GRA497823

I also accept the fact that the offensive line has been brutal at best.  Grant just looks lost sometimes.  He doesn’t break tackles.  He drops passes.  There is no explosion, no quick burst of speed.  He is hesitant to take on would-be tacklers.  He just doesn’t have it right now.  The Ahman Green signing is a good move by the Packers. 

 Green is back where he rightfully belongs:

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/65270567.html